India's module capacity hits 233 GW, factories at 35-40%

India's solar module capacity has reached 233 GW while factories run at 35-40% utilisation, an IEEFA and JMK Research report says. The surplus lasts to 2030.

India's solar module overcapacity has reached the point where its factories cannot fill themselves. Module nameplate capacity stands at approximately 233 GW while utilisation runs at an estimated 35-40%, against the 50-65% that industry stakeholders identify as sustainable, according to a joint report by IEEFA and JMK Research & Analytics reported on 2 September 2026. A further 135 GW is committed.

How lopsided the value chain actually is

The single most telling ratio is 116. India can laminate 116 times more modules than it can pull ingots and cut wafers for. Everything upstream of the module still arrives from China.

Why the surplus will not clear by itself

Demand is not growing fast enough to absorb it. India reached 288 GW of cumulative operational renewable capacity by June 2026, with solar at 56% of that, and installed solar is projected at 280-300 GW by 2030. But tendering has gone backwards: roughly 24 GW of renewable tenders were issued in FY2026 against nearly 45 GW in FY2025, a fall of about 47%, which the report attributes to land acquisition delays, grid connectivity constraints and slow power supply agreement execution.

The new demand sources everyone names — data centres, green hydrogen and ammonia, exports — add up to roughly 17-22 GW by 2030 in JMK's modelling. Data centres alone contribute around 2-3 GW a year by 2030. Against 233 GW of installed nameplate capacity, that is a rounding error.

The export channel is one country, and it is closing

India exported approximately 4.5 GW of modules in FY2026, and roughly 97% of that volume went to the United States. Exports outside the US amounted to about 128 MW in total, with Bangladesh, the UAE and Kenya named as the small secondary markets. Indian shipments to the US peaked at approximately US$1.94 billion in FY2024 and fell 44-47% over the following two years.

US trade policy is the reason. Preliminary determinations by the US Department of Commerce in February and April 2026 produced combined duty exposure above 200% for most Indian manufacturers. Final determinations, originally due in July 2026, have been deferred to October 2026. This is the same policy direction that produced the Section 232 price floor on imported modules: the American market is being closed to everyone at once, and the surplus has to find another home.

Where the surplus can go, and what it costs to compete

The report names the European Union as the most structured medium-term diversification opportunity, with the Middle East and Africa behind it, particularly through projects run by international and Indian EPC contractors. It also names the obstacle: mainstream Chinese TOPCon modules operate at the upper end of the 24% efficiency band while leading Indian TOPCon manufacturers sit at 22-23%. The price gap between Indian and Chinese modules has narrowed by roughly 28.6% from its 2024 level, but has not closed.

Consolidation is the expected consequence. The report flags 45-50 GW of capacity — small downstream-only manufacturers, PERC-based lines and firms without a credible upstream roadmap — as prone to disruption, with TOPCon now over 70% of India's module capacity.

The SOLTECH view

The temptation here is to read "233 GW of surplus modules" as "cheaper panels in Dubai". We do not think that follows, and the report's own export figures are why.

• For a building owner in the UAE: nothing changes this quarter. Indian modules reached the entire non-US world at a rate of about 128 MW a year. Your quote is priced off Chinese TOPCon, and it will stay that way until an Indian manufacturer actually opens a Gulf distribution channel with local warranty service behind it. A cheaper module with no service presence in the Emirates is not cheaper — it is a warranty you cannot claim. That is the question to ask a contractor, not the price per watt. See what actually drives system cost in Dubai.
• For an EPC contractor: there is a real opening, and it has a two-to-three-year horizon rather than a two-month one. Indian manufacturers under margin pressure and locked out of the US will look for volume buyers, and Gulf EPC pipelines are exactly what they need. If you are building a multi-year supplier panel, this is the moment to open the conversation and demand terms — bankability documentation, IEC certification, and a named regional service entity — that you would not have got in 2024.
• For an investor: the useful signal is 2 GW. That is the entire merchant cell market in a country with 233 GW of module lines. Any Indian standalone module manufacturer in a supply chain you are underwriting depends on imported Chinese cells and on a policy environment that is tightening around them. Treat the efficiency gap — 22-23% against 24%+ — as a yield assumption, not a footnote.

What the report does not settle: whether the 135 GW of "firm commitment" pipeline actually gets built once utilisation stays below 40%. Announced capacity and commissioned capacity have diverged badly in every solar manufacturing boom of the last decade, including China's. We would not model that 135 GW as arriving on schedule, and we would be cautious about any forecast that does.

Источники: PV Tech — India's solar module overcapacity to persist through 2030 as capacity reaches 233GW, 2 September 2026, pv magazine — India's solar module overcapacity pushes factory utilization to 35-40%, 1 September 2026, IEEFA — Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.