TOPCon cell prices jump 13% as China ends below-cost sales
FOB China TOPCon M10 cell prices rose 13.09% in a week to $0.0458/W after eight polysilicon makers pledged to stop selling below full cost. What it means.
TOPCon cell prices turned sharply upward in August 2026. FOB China TOPCon M10 cell prices rose 13.09% week on week to $0.0458/W, and TOPCon 210R cells rose 12.03% to $0.0447/W, according to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report released on 18 August 2026. The trigger was upstream: eight Chinese polysilicon producers pledged on 7 August to stop selling below full cost.
What exactly did the polysilicon producers agree to?
Eight producers signed an industry initiative in Shanghai on the evening of 6 August 2026, announced on 7 August: Tongwei, GCL Technology, Daqo New Energy, Xinte Energy, Asia Silicon, Xinjiang East Hope New Energy, Qinghai Lihao Clean Energy and Xinjiang Goens Energy Technology. Together they control more than 90% of China's effective polysilicon capacity.
They pledged not to price PV products below cost as calculated under the General Rules for Cost Accounting Models in the Photovoltaic Industry, citing China's Price Law, Anti-Unfair Competition Law and Anti-Monopoly Law. They also pledged to retire capacity that fails efficiency and technology requirements — reinforced by GB 29447-2026, China's mandatory energy-consumption standard for polysilicon production, which takes effect on 1 January 2027.
How far did prices actually move?
| Product (FOB China) | Price | Week on week |
|---|---|---|
| TOPCon M10 cell | $0.0458/W | +13.09% |
| TOPCon 210R cell | $0.0447/W | +12.03% |
| M10 wafer | $0.132/piece | +9.09% |
| 210R wafer | $0.149/piece | +11.19% |
All four assessments are from the same OPIS report of 18 August 2026, published by pv magazine on 21 August 2026.
Does this mean module prices go up?
Not automatically, and not by the same percentage. Module market participants remain in a wait-and-see stance, assessing whether the upstream measures translate into higher module costs at all. One top-tier manufacturer told pv magazine that domestic module prices had moved in tandem with cell prices while export module prices stayed comparatively stable, and that as long as capacity remains oversupplied the scope for module price increases is limited.
A second industry source was openly sceptical, noting that an earlier industry-led effort to buy up and retire obsolete polysilicon capacity failed to rebalance the market. The honest reading: a firmer cost floor is being built, but persistent overcapacity and weak end-user demand still cap producers' pricing power in export markets.
Two policy deadlines are pulling demand forward
China will impose a 2% consumption tax on solar cells from April 2027, rising to 4% from April 2028, under a July 2026 joint announcement by the Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs and the State Taxation Administration. A top-10 producer source said the policy could support domestic cell prices in the run-up to implementation by encouraging buyers to bring purchases forward.
In India, the ALMM List-II requirement for solar cells took effect on 1 June 2026, obliging covered projects to use modules made with cells from enlisted domestic manufacturers. The government then extended an exemption allowing net-metering and open-access projects commissioned by 31 December 2026 to keep using India-assembled modules with imported cells. An Indian module supplier expects the resulting order surge to continue for the next couple of months.
What a UAE buyer should do about it
The Gulf is a price-taker on modules, so this matters here even though none of it happens here.
- Pin down how long a quote's module pricing is valid. Cell prices moved 13% in a single week. A quote with no stated validity window is an invitation to be repriced later.
- Judge the offer on cost per kWh, not cost per watt. A cheaper module on a hotter roof can lose the difference back through temperature coefficient and degradation — see how module specs translate into Gulf yield.
- Do not delay a project waiting for a lower price. The direction of travel in August 2026 is a firming floor, not a resuming decline, and every month of delay is a month of full DEWA billing you do not get back. Our investor page sets out how the payback maths reacts to module price, and it is less sensitive than most people assume.
Sources: pv magazine / OPIS — China TOPCon cell prices jump (21 August 2026), pv magazine — Chinese polysilicon majors pledge to end loss-making sales (7 August 2026), TaiyangNews — Eight Chinese polysilicon makers agree to fair pricing, Global Times — Eight major polysilicon producers pledge to avoid below-cost sales.